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PHOTO NEWS Out of nowhere: Debris is all that remains Saturday of a house destroyed by a suspected tornado that struck the previous day, killing three people in Tokunoshima, a town on a remote southern island in Kagoshima Prefecture. KYODO PHOTO Full story >>	Apparent twister kills three on remote isle Three people are killed on a remote southern island by an apparent tornado that destroyed a house in the town of Tokunoshima, Kagoshima Prefecture. Practical & Business Japanese at central Tokyo JLI, Nichibei Kaiwa Gakuin (since 1967) 23 prefectures reluctant to help Tohoku dispose of disaster debris More than half of the prefectures polled by the Environment Ministry do not plan to accept quake and tsunami debris from disaster-stricken Tohoku. Taiwan plane brings tourists back to Fukushima A TransAsia Airways chartered flight with 180 tourists onboard lands at Fukushima airport, the first international flight to arrive since March 11, giving the region's badly-hit tourism industry a much needed lift.	TOKYO (8 a.m.) AccuWeather,Inc.©2008 17°C Cloudy Humidity: 87% Winds: NNE at 6 kph Pressure: 1001 hpa Total weather coverage >> Total weather coverage >> Special Supplements Kochi Prefecure Find out about Kochi's natural and scenic retreats, such as the Muroto Geopark and Shimanto River, while learning about its renowned hospitality. Global Career Viewpoint Study in Japan, Work around the World International Schools Directory Find an international school in Japan from a nationwide list while learning about the latest developments in international school education. The Professionals What drives a person to become a true professional in his or her field? We find out in this new series. Japanese Language Schools where students gather from all over the world ジャパンタイムズが勧める安心して学べる日本語学校特集 No.1 Travel The latest deals on international airfares The University Times いま求められるのはグローバル人材。「これからの世界と仕事」を考える、きっかけフリーペーパー。 Wisdom of Entrepreneurs Learn about innovative strategies and successful business philosophies from Japanese executives in our series, Wisdom of Entrepreneurs 通訳・翻訳キャリアガイド・オンライン 通訳・翻訳業界の総合ガイドブック2012年度版が誕生！一部コンテンツをウェブで公開中。 Celebrating the world Learn about foreign countries with our National Day specials and see which world leaders have visited Japan. ジャパンタイムズの転職サイト 外資・グローバル企業の求人が満載。英語を活かして転職するならジャパンタイムズジョブ！ International Reports World Eye Reports: Thailand As Thailand and Japan prepare for the 125th year since the start of their diplomatic relations, companies in both countries continue to strengthen the partnership. International Reports World Eye Reports Global Insight Global Surveys & Communications Close Ready to expand your horizons and study in Japan? Here's your resource for locating the educational institutions and curriculum best suited to you and your goals. Doshisha University To stimulate the mind and educate the soul, Doshisha University strives to foster the "nation's conscience" as well as global communication.   The Japan Times Online Updates 週刊ＳＴ、ジャパンタイムズウィークリーのデジタル版：iPhone / iPadでも閲覧が可能になりました。デジタル版は全ページがカラーです。 週刊ＳＴデジタル版の申し込み >> Weekly デジタル版の申し込み >> Japan in focus: Have photos of Japan that you'd like to show off? It's a snap to have them published in Weekend Scene's Pixel Pictures of Japan. Click for more information Hotline to Nagatacho: Need to vent at the government? We'd like to read what you have to say. Click for more information about Hotline to Nagatacho. Sponsored links (Lifestyle) ホテル予約　宿泊　旅行 日本の宿・ホテル検索宿・ホテル予約サイト   福岡　マンション 日本の住宅・不動産情報の総合サイト 中古車・中古車情報 中古車の情報満載！ 中古車を選ぶならココ！   表参道　結婚式　二次会 青山・表参道・渋谷での 披露宴、結婚式二次会なら 結婚式 招待状・席次表 花嫁必見！こだわりと節約を叶える結婚アイテム     Poll Most read stories Editors' picks A piece of your mind To partner or not partner ... Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda Japan has announced that Japan would take part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. What's your take on this? I'm against it. Japan's farmers must be protected. The partnership is crucial for the Japanese economy. If talks don't go well, Japan shouldn't participate. I don't know enough about it. Total Votes : 577 View past polls
SPORTS NEWS>> Dragons edge Hawks; series tied 3-3 By JASON COSKREY The Dragons, who lost Games 3, 4, and 5 at home, score two runs in the first inning and never trail en route to a 2-1 victory in Game 6 of the Japan Series. J.LEAGUE SOCCER Grampus climb into first place after dramatic triumph FIGURE SKATING Murakami fourth after short program at Trophee Bompard SUNDAY FEATURES >> WEEK 3 Smiles return to Tohoku as the circus comes to town By ERIKO ARITA At Nakamura Daiichi Elementary School in Soma, Fukushima Prefecture, a theater company named La Tatan Sha recently staged a musical for the students that featured live painting. ... WEEK 3 Paradoxes pervade gender issues' public face in Japan By JACKIE HOFFART WEEK 3 French researchers seek raison d'etre of hikikomori By TOMOKO OTAKE ENTERTAINMENT SPOTLIGHT >> Proud love pervades NHK's 'Madame Butterfly' By EDAN CORKILL "Well, little Chrysantheme, let us part good friends; one last kiss even, if you like. I took you to amuse me; you have not perhaps succeeded very well, but after all you have done what you could: given me your ... FILM >> 'Koi no Tsumi (Guilty of Romance)' In Sono's Tokyo, the whores hustle and the hustlers whore By MARK SCHILLING How can a film shock today's jaded audiences, for whom blood spurts and flying body parts prompt laughter instead of gasps? How can a filmmaker transgress when nearly everything is allowed? Taken far enough, this line of inquiry can lead ... 'George Harrison: Living in the Material World' / 'Under Control' Pop star to power plant, all things must pass By GIOVANNI FAZIO 'Henry's Crime' The light at the end of the tunnel is ... Keanu? By KAORI SHOJI Volunteer-led Tohoku cinema provides welcome escapism By MARK SCHILLING FOOD >> Plenty of wine — and food to match By ROBBIE SWINNERTON For the longest time, one of our most vociferous complaints about Tokyo was that there weren't enough wine bars worthy of the name. These days, thankfully, we are spoiled for choice in every price range. One of the best of ... Fresh-baked bread to suit every dish on the menu By ROBBIE SWINNERTON Mushrooms and much more in Moto-Yoyogi By ROBBIE SWINNERTON TRAVEL >> Memories of Mount Takao By SKYE HOHMANN Sometimes in the Japanese autumn, when the days are still warm and the air is beginning to smell of persimmons and fallen leaves, my mind stumbles across a day nearly 20 years ago now, and I turn the memory over ... Taking it easy on Tokashiki By HILLEL WRIGHT You don't need to be bbarking to wwoof By MIKE HAMILTON Special report on Amazing Kanagawa: Yokohama's port area comes to life at night EVENTS >> Dvorak opera to make debut By CHIHO IUCHI Czech composer Antonin Dvorak's (1841-1904) symphonies, such as Symphony No. 9 "From the New World," are well known to Japanese audiences. However, his operatic works have not been performed that often in Japan. ... Holiday season starts with market in Osaka By MONICA TANDUNG Folksy gig is family friendly By MATTHEW HOLMES Gainsbourg's muse to stop by Japan on her way to North America By ERIKO ARITA Fukuoka's got talent By MATTHEW HOLMES HOTELS & RESTAURANTS >> Westin Miyako maple boxed lunches The pick of this week's specials at Japan's hotels and restaurants. CARTOONS >> Zero Gravity By ROGER DAHL Noodles By GWEN MURANAKA BLOGS >> Virtual games in a real sports club Fun for one, online and off Corporate brands drawn to anime’s selling power Fair Trade turns from a movement into a brand Back to business as usual for condominium developers? The more, the thriftier: guests indispensable for expensive weddings	NATIONAL NEWS >> Article 9 group calls for end to nuclear power From the sky, tsunami areas cleaner but barren DPJ may exclude foreign members from voting for party chief Dave Spector gets NPA hotline thanks 'K' group wins supercomputer prize Aum killer Nakagawa's death penalty finalized NEWS FEATURES >> KANSAI: Who & What TPP commitment hinged to interests By ALEX MARTIN Cookouts along Tama drawing flak By MINORU MATSUTANI BUSINESS NEWS>> Olympus trio face weekend interrogation Azumi concerned by rise in Italian, Spanish yields Exec petitions for Woodford return Toyota fetes start of new Mississippi plant Solar power plant rules to be eased in clean energy drive OPINION - EDITORIAL>> Teachers leaving jobs Storing radioactive waste Fear drives Arab League to act Diet action for reconstruction Political confusion over KORUS A trade link in South Asia Partnership in the Asia-Pacific COMMUNITY >> LIFE IN JAPAN Okinawa shutterbug captures varied reactions to Hinomaru By JON MITCHELL JAPAN LITE When are we going to eat udon? By AMY CHAVEZ WHEN EAST MARRIES WEST The poetry of pet peeves By THOMAS DILLON LIFELINES Writing a will can take the uncertainty out of inheritance By ASHLEY THOMPSON

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Nuclear Iran Not the End of the World

A danger the U.S. and the rest of the world can live with

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by Jordan Michael Smith
12-Nov-2011
 

United Nations inspectors released new documents containing what is supposed to be a bombshell. “Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device,” according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The report is the most damning the agency has ever issued.
Unsurprisingly, hawks have jumped on the news to argue that America needs to attack Iran. “If we are in a position where Iran is close to getting a nuclear weapon, then action needs to be taken,” declared Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum. “A nuclear Iran poses a challenge to U.S. influence that cannot be tolerated,” argued Commentary magazine’s Jonathan Tobin. Liberals and leftists, by contrast, claim the report is not as harsh as what is being reported. The report will “not likely” contain a “smoking gun,” wrote Robert Dreyfuss of the Nation.
Dreyfuss is right that the report doesn’t contain unequivocal evidence that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program — but so what? If an Iranian nuke was not containable and a major threat to the United States, then America would be justified in destroying the program before it was fully realized. But it is neither. And it is unwise to overlook those points in favor of obsessively following the daily shifts of Iranian nuclear progress like traders scouring the Dow Jones. History and strategic logic say that a nuclear Iran would not represent a major threat to the U.S. or its allies.
The logic of Mutually Assured Destruction holds that a country with nuclear weapons will not attack another nuclear-armed country because it will itself face retaliation in the form of nuclear destruction. Destroying the enemy becomes a way of destroying oneself. MAD, as the policy came to be known during the Cold War, is unsettling but has proved 100 percent effective in preventing war between nuclear-armed states.
Iran is unique, argue the hawks of Washington and Tel Aviv. Unlike with every other country with nuclear weapons that has preceded it, this form of deterrence will not work with Iran, they say. The Iranian regime is distinguished by the radical Islamist ideology of its leaders, who believe death in the service of Allah is desirable. As a result, it is unlikely that “deterrence can be successful with religious extremists who regard life and death differently,” argued Clifford May, president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. For all the horrors of nuclear menaces from previous eras like the Soviet Union and Mao’s China, hawks claim, they were atheists committed to sustaining life on earth and hence subject to rational deterrence.
Objections to this argument are twofold. First, there is no indication the Iranian regime is committed to martyrdom at all. Consider its actions, not its words. Iran promised repeatedly that it would destroy Iraq in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War — and accept destruction itself — rather than accept a cease-fire or end hostilities. It even used human waves to clear minefields and declared the war a sacred jihad, promising to resist until victory. Nonetheless, in 1988 Iran sued for peace and accepted a compromised end to the war that left the country in no more of a favorable position than when the war began.
Moreover, the Islamic regime in Iran has not invaded a single other country, instead relying only on the low-risk strategy of supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah. According to the prizewinning book “Treacherous Alliance,” by Iranian-born scholar Trita Parsi, Iran also had extensive dealings with its sworn opponent, Israel, throughout the 1980s. If the religious extremists who lead Iran are prepared to commit national suicide, they have never displayed it. Just the opposite, in fact. They have shown they prize survival above all else.
Second, singling out the Iranian regime as particularly unstable and untrustworthy romanticizes challenges from the past. Far from predictable, the Soviet Union and Chinese governments that developed the bomb were totalitarian, expansionist and far more threatening to the United States than Iran has ever been. The same hawks who claim Iran cannot be trusted are ideological descendants (sometimes literal descendants) of the individuals who wrongly argued that the Soviets were gaining strength on America in the 1970s and were determined to destroy it.
Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s infamous warning to the Western world that “we will bury you” was far more threatening to America than anything that Iran, with its third-rate military and economy, could ever do. Similarly, Mao Zedong, who developed China’s nuclear capabilities, was every bit as aggressive with his rhetoric as the Iranians are: “Let us imagine how many people would die if war breaks out. There are 2.7 billion people in the world, and a third could be lost. If it is a little higher it could be half … I say that if the worst came to the worst and one-half dies, there will still be one-half left, but imperialism would be razed to the ground and the whole world would become socialist. After a few years there would be 2.7 billion people again,” he said. And China, unlike present-day Iran, was a country with a huge military capacity and had matched Americans directly on the battlefield, on the Korean peninsula.
In retrospect, it is clear that nuclear weapons actually moderated China’s sabre-rattling, but that was hardly obvious at the time. Released documents showed that John F. Kennedy’s administration very seriously contemplated a strike on China’s nuclear program, as did previous administrations with the Soviets. The worst fears of hawks that China and the Soviets would deploy their nukes against the United States or its allies never materialized. And had America struck either China or the Soviet Union, the result would have been unmitigated, unnecessary disaster. The same is true of Iran today.
None of this is to say that an Iran armed with a nuclear weapon is a positive development. It isn’t. Nuclear proliferation in any region is problematic; in the chaos-ridden Middle East, it is simply dangerous. But it is a danger the United States and the rest of the world can live with. What America cannot afford is another unnecessary, poorly considered attack on a Muslim country in the heart of the Middle East. If only we had a reliable deterrent to prevent against that.
First published in Salon.com